By Justin Pierce (JP) | Branch Manager / Certified Mortgage Advisor
Gold Star Mortgage Financial Group
Market context: October 5–9, 2026 | Research checked October 9, 2026“I’ll buy when the market gets back to normal.”
It sounds like a reasonable plan. But what counts as normal, and will it feel affordable for the person running your business?
A housing analysis released this week offers useful perspective. It also gives us a reason to be careful about turning a national headline into a personal deadline.
What the new report actually says
Redfin’s October 8 analysis explored hypothetical paths back to August 2018 mortgage-payment-to-income levels. One scenario reaches that point nationally in about five years if mortgage rates fall to 6% and annual home-price growth stays near 2.1%. Those are assumptions in a model, not promised future rates or a prediction that every buyer should wait five years. [1]
The report also places San Jose, Austin, Oakland, Seattle, and Portland among the markets closest to their earlier relationship between housing costs and incomes. Local timelines vary widely. Returning to a city’s past ratio would not necessarily make it affordable for every household. [1]
Your business does not earn the national average
As a self-employed buyer, your situation may change on a different schedule. You might gain a steady client, lose a major account, hire employees, or reinvest in equipment. None of those decisions will wait for a national housing model to reach its target.
That is why a useful homebuying plan starts with your own household needs and business outlook. How predictable are your earnings? How much cash would you want available after buying? How long do you expect to keep the home?
Write down your answers before choosing a target price. If your business has seasonal swings, include the quieter stretch in the discussion rather than building the entire plan around your strongest month.
Make waiting an active decision
Waiting can be the right choice when it gives you time to accomplish something concrete: build savings, reduce an uncomfortable debt payment, clean up your bookkeeping, or understand how your income will be evaluated.
Choose a milestone you can measure. “I will revisit this after I have organized my records and rebuilt my cash cushion” is more useful than “I will know when the market looks perfect.”
Then set a date to review your progress. You can prepare without committing to a purchase. You can also decide to continue renting if that better supports your household and business.
Compare two realistic paths
Consider a buy-now path using an actual property and current financing information. Include the full ownership expense, cash needed to close, likely maintenance, and what remains in savings.
Next, consider a wait-and-prepare path using your current rent, realistic saving capacity, and the business goals you want to complete. Avoid giving that second path a guaranteed lower mortgage rate or home price. Those are unknown.
The comparison should reveal what would make each path workable. It may show that waiting improves your position. It may show that you can comfortably buy now. Either result is useful when the assumptions are honest.
Bring the national story back to your neighborhood
The California, Texas, Washington, and Oregon markets in Redfin’s analysis are a reminder to research the specific neighborhood. Even within the same metro, the home you need may sit in a different price range or face different competition.
If you are shopping in Nevada or another state, use the report as a reason to ask local questions, not as a timetable for your city.
JP’s take
Give yourself a financial readiness target, then keep updating it as your life and the market change. You do not need certainty about the entire housing market to make a thoughtful decision about your next home.
What would need to change for you to feel ready: your savings, your business income, the homes available, or borrowing costs? Share the biggest factor in the comments.
Subscribe to Beyond the Rate for practical perspective on housing news. Call me for a mortgage strategy session to compare your own buy-now and wait-and-prepare paths.
Sources[1] Redfin — U.S. Housing Costs Could Return to Normal Within 5 Years, published October 8, 2026; hypothetical scenario analysis[2] CFPB — Loan Estimate explainer, reviewed October 9, 2026